The lofty goal of driving prosperity in developing nations has become a surprisingly tangled equation as the world has awakened to the environmental costs of economic growth. As more people rise out of poverty, the lives they lead start to resemble a Western lifestyle, which burns through energy with startling abandon while polluting with a similar lack of restraint.

Nowhere is this dilemma more starkly in evidence than in the unfolding futures of China and India.

Here's a snapshot of a potential scenario in China: If its economy continues to grow at a rate of even 8 percent per year (lower than its current rate), its per-capita income will reach the current U.S. level by 2031. If resource consumption also rises to match U.S. levels, by that time the Chinese will annually consume two-thirds of the world's entire grain harvest. They will own 1.1 billion cars-compared with the 800 million that exist worldwide today-and they will consume 99 million barrels of oil daily, which far exceeds the 84 million barrels currently produced globally each day.

This rapid growth has to be fueled somehow. China is currently the world's largest consumer of coal and, after the U.S., the second largest consumer of oil. (India is the world's third largest coal consumer and its fifth largest oil consumer.) In fact, China is expected to soon surpass the U.S. as the world's largest greenhouse gas emitter. Predictions range from later in 2007 to sometime in 2009.

Meanwhile, the looming environmental damage of China and India's rapid growth has forced the developed world to face its own hypocrisy: Given our own past path to development-which included plenty of deforestation, factory pollution, and other types of environmental plundering-what right do we have to ask China and India to slow their growth or invest in cleaner technologies? And can we expect the growing numbers of Chinese and Indians joining the ranks of the world's middle class to forgo the conveniences and luxuries many in the West now take for granted? Many argue that continued unfettered growth will indeed push us up against the limits of the Earth's capacity to sustain life.

Why are the economies of China and India in the news lately?
To begin with, the two nations command attention by sheer dint of population size. With 1.3 billion and 1.1 billion citizens, respectively, China and India are the first and second most populous nations in the world.

More important, over the past two decades, both countries have enjoyed remarkably high economic growth rates. Indeed, China has averaged an annual economic growth rate of about nine percent over the past 20 years (10 percent recently), and India has managed about 6 percent. By comparison, the U.S. economy has been growing at a relatively staid three percent annually. To put that in perspective, in 2006 China and the U.S. were responsible for nearly half of all global economic growth.

How do the Chinese and Indian economies compare?
China today is the world's second largest economy, after the U.S., and India is the 10th largest. (This is when they're measured on the basis of purchasing-power parity, a comparison that looks at the relative buying power of each country's currency, assuming the same types of goods and services.) While China is already seen as the world's manufacturing workshop-in 2006, it had a trade surplus of $177 billion-India's economy is still largely oriented toward agriculture and services. Thus, there's tremendous room for expansion in India's manufacturing sector. The McKinsey Global Institute recently predicted that by 2025, India's consumer market will be the world's fifth largest.

China and India may be up-and-coming economies, but they have a long way to go before joining the ranks of developed nations. The World Bank estimates that, as of the end of 2004, 135 million Chinese were still living below the international poverty line of $1 a day, and that some 500 million were living on less than $2 a day. In India, around a quarter of the population lives on less than $1 a day.

What does the rise of China and India mean for the environment?
As both countries' economies grow, so do serious domestic ecological problems. Much of India suffers from severe air pollution, largely caused by industrial and vehicle emissions. In 2004, of the three million premature deaths worldwide attributed to air pollution, the highest number were in India. China's waters, meanwhile, are being poisoned by industry. According to Elizabeth Economy, director of Asia studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, the quality of much of the water in five of China's seven major rivers has been rated "poor" or "dangerous," meaning it can't safely be tapped for drinking water and generally can't support fish.

How does all this affect me?
An old myth says that if everyone in China and India were to jump at the same time, the world would drift off its orbit around the sun. The myth is just that, but it does point to a hard truth: What happens in China and India matters for the rest of the world. Pollution produced in China (or any other country, for that matter) isn't contained by its borders. According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), on some days almost a quarter of the pollution in L.A.'s skies comes from China. And it's been reported that Oregon's Willamette River is contaminated with mercury from China's coal-burning power plants.

China's growing demand for oil, though still trailed by India's, is seen as one factor keeping oil prices high. And oil prices affect not only the cost of filling up your tank but also America's economy and national security. Food is another national security issue, and with China's domestic grain production falling (the downturn is linked to droughts, which in turn have been linked by the government to global warming), that country may soon be driving up world food prices as well. Needless to say, with their booming greenhouse gas emissions, China and India are joining the developed world in driving up world temperatures, too.

What are the challenges to sustainable development in China and India?
The world's developed nations would like to see China and India grow responsibly-that is, sustainably.

China and India are aware of the vast scale of their environmental problems. They're aware that these problems come with substantial current costs. And they're aware that, in the future, they may each face potentially devastating environmental crises. The national governments want to move forward sustainably. In a major break with its former philosophy of growth at any cost, for example, China recently formulated a national strategy of "harmonious development" and national goals that emphasize energy- and resource-efficient growth and reduced pollution.

What role do China and India play in global warming?
Under the terms of the Kyoto Protocol, part of the current international treaty on climate change, developing countries aren't obligated to limit their greenhouse gas emissions. That includes China and India. On the other hand, developed countries that agree to the protocol commit to emissions limitations. At this stage, "common but differentiated responsibilities" are an essential aspect of the protocol.

The current Kyoto targets expire in 2012, and negotiations are already under way to determine what will come after that. Developed countries would like to see China, India, and other fast-developing economies commit to limit their greenhouse gas emissions. The U.S. cited the exemption of China and India from Kyoto's developed-country requirements as one of its primary reasons for not ratifying the protocol. Additionally, critics of the agreement point out that China and India are already among the world's top greenhouse gas emitters and that, along with other powerhouse developing nations, their share of global greenhouse gas emissions is rising. India's emissions alone are expected to triple by 2020.

But as China and India are quick to point out, their per-capita fossil fuel consumption is below the world average and far below that of the U.S. While the average American uses 28 barrels of oil per year, the average Chinese uses 2 barrels, and the average Indian just half a barrel. In addition, at this point, human-induced climate change is almost entirely caused by the West's long-term past emissions.

Neither China nor India denies global warming, and both countries, concerned about potentially devastating domestic effects, want to play a role in combating climate change. But they expect developed countries to lead the way, by slashing greenhouse gas emissions and by providing developing nations with necessary technological know-how and capital.

Is there a chance for eco-sound growth in China and India?
Many hope that China and India will achieve their sustainable development goals through technological leapfrogging. The idea is that, for example, just as India has skipped a generation in telecommunications technology-the country has 70 million cell phones and 50 million land lines-it can leapfrog over coal in bringing power to the 600 million Indians who are off the electric grid. India has one of the world's largest national programs to promote solar energy, which is far more cost-effective in remote rural areas than traditional power plants. China has had great success with rural renewable-energy electrification, and in 2005, excluding large hydropower, it was the world's largest renewable-power producer.

In the long term, just as affluence in the West creates expectations of clean water to drink and clean air to breathe, the people of China and India are likely to demand more in the way of environmental quality as their incomes go up. Already, China's leaders are concerned about social unrest caused by poor environmental conditions. Some 50,000 environmental protests-a number of them resulting in injuries and even deaths-were reported in China in 2005.

"China faces a big challenge," says Dr. Yang Fuqiang, vice president of the Energy Foundation and head of its Beijing-based China Sustainable Energy Program. "We have to leapfrog the developed countries-to develop new technology, new ideas, a new approach. We are leading the way for the rest of the world's developing countries, finding a sustainable path."

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